Dynasty Reads: Prospect Profiles
Welcome to a series of prospect profiles designed to help you navigate your upcoming dynasty rookie drafts. These profiles will spend time dissecting three essential components of a prospect: the physical profile, athleticism, and college production. On today’s menu is Ohio State running back Trey Sermon.
Trey Sermon: Physical Profile
According to PlayerProfiler, Sermon stands exactly six feet tall and weighs 213 pounds. Although his BMI (body mass index) is a worrisome 28.9 (24th percentile), Sermon still has some weight on him which is often essential for running backs at the NFL level. Sermon is tall and lightly framed, built in the mold of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson.
While BMI is important, Sermon still has the potential to be a featured back. He also has every opportunity to put on some weight before his Pro Day, much like Clemson running back Travis Etienne. Regardless, it’s unlikely teams will shy away from him due to his BMI, and more likely they’ll pay attention to the film, which displays a dangerous player.
Sermon looks decently athletic, but it’s hard to assess where Sermon lands on the SPARQ rating spectrum without any recent official measurements. Looking back at his high school profile (2017), all Sermon provided was the 20-yard shuttle and a vertical jump. His shuttle time was a subpar 4.27, and his vertical was another mediocre result of 34.7″. Those numbers would suggest Sermon is going to lack some agility and burst; however, those metrics also come from four years ago. Until his Pro Day, we only have our eyes to rely on, which should suggest Sermon has enough athleticism.
Sermon’s first three seasons were exhausted playing for Oklahoma. He spent the 2017 campaign backing up now NFL free agent Rodney Anderson, losing work on the ground to now Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray in 2018, and then split time with running back Kennedy Brooks in 2019. Over these three years, Sermon compiled 2,076 rushing yards on 339 carries – 6.3 yards per carry – adding 36 receptions on 48 targets for 391 yards and 25 total touchdowns
In search of more playing time, Sermon decided to transfer to Ohio State for his senior year. The signs were promising as Sermon truly broke out in 2020 when he was finally able showcase his talent for one of the best college football schools in the nation. Sermon still split work with Ohio State running back Master Teague, but he was the far better back in terms of efficiency.
Sermon produced 870 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry (in just eight games) while adding 12 receptions on 19 targets (8.4% target share) for 95 yards and contributing four total touchdowns. Keep in mind, most of Sermon’s production came in three games with impressive performances against Clemson and Michigan State. But the big one came against Northwestern when he popped off for 331 rushing yards on 11.4 yards per carry and two touchdowns.
Still, Sermon came into a brand new school and completely stole the limelight. Teague was an afterthought, only managing 514 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry, five receptions on seven targets for 46 yards, and eight total touchdowns.
Conclusion and Comparison
Sermon is an intriguing prospect who might have been viewed as one of the best backs in this class if he had ever seized a featured role. Perhaps there is cause for concern there, but the tape and numbers don’t lie; Sermon can play.
While Sermon’s floor looks like a more athletic Johnson, there’s a possibility Sermon’s best comparison is former NFL running back DeMarco Murray. It’s unlikely Sermon is an 86th percentile SPARQ-x athlete like Murray. But if Sermon runs around a 4.5 40 and produces a nice broad jump the comparison won’t be as far-fetched. They both spent three years splitting carries at Oklahoma before breaking out in their senior season. Sermon also seems like a third-round prospect as we saw with Murray. Keep an eye on Sermon’s Pro Day, as this will dictate where he lands amongst the 2021 running back class.
As always, your time is appreciated, and thank you for reading. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @DrDynastE, as I’ll be rolling out more rookie prospect profiles as the NFL Draft approaches. While you’re at it, make sure to follow @JoinOurCircle_ on Twitter, check out our YouTube page, and meet the entire Support Group for Fantasy Intervention.