Fantasy Intervention: The Dynasty Market (v1.0)

Fantasy Intervention: The Dynasty Market

Version 1.0

The stock market fluctuates day-to-day, be it by people attempting to buy a stock or by an event creating the stock to drop or rise in value. Dynasty Football shares similarities when the football players are viewed as stocks. The perceived future value of a player is a variable to be analyzed when trading these stocks. If you want to buy a stock before it rises, you would want to avoid the bull market, a period of generally rising prices. You might want to sell on a stock because the buy was a mistake, the price has risen drastically, or selling for valuation.

Let’s analyze market trends, a perceived tendency to move in a particular direction over time, on Dynasty assets for the upcoming 2021 season.

Introduction

Dynasty players’ values will change year-to-year, even week-to-week. Understanding their situation will benefit your team if you are able to be multiple steps ahead on the competition. 

Think chess, not checkers.

A player’s situation can change for various reasons: injury, performance, age, team’s acquisition of a player, or a change of teams (trade or signing). The only variable we cannot account for is injury. There are ways to understand recurrence of an injury/additional injuries to potentially occur, shout out to the Fantasy Physical Therapists, but we cannot predict injuries will happen — just that they might.

When viewing the market we must be making decisions to benefit our team for the future without sacrificing the present aka for a championship contender:

  1. Roster construction
  2. Team needs
  3. Team situations 

These three general rules of thumb are main variables to be analyzed when making these decisions for your Dynasty teams. Since Dynasty Football is a dynamic market, the price discovery is continuous as assets are bought and sold. Prices will sometimes fall below the average and sometimes exceed the average due to transient changes in supply.

I turned to our Fantasy Intervention group chat and asked for different Intervention minds to pick a buy and a sell. Let’s look at assets to be bought and assets to be sold following the conclusion of the 2020 NFL season.

Market Sells

  • Mike (@DaddysHomeFF) – RB | James Robinson (JAX)

What leads to running back gold?  Opportunity!  James Robinson could not have fallen into a better opportunity than he did this year. Not only do the Jags have literally nothing at the quarterback position, they also lost their top two wide receiver threats to injury for most of the year (Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark).

Going into 2021, you can expect their franchise quarterback under center and a full complement of weapons for the quarterback to rely on. Robinson is absolutely still on the RB2 radar, I am just not sure his value will ever be higher than it is at the moment.

  • TripleDFFP (@TripleDFFP) – RB | Kareem Hunt (CLE)

With buying and selling you have to move with the market so today’s sell for me is a MASSIVE paradigm shift from my past articles. I’m selling Kareem Hunt. In the off season he was attainable. People were worried about his usage alongside a workhorse like Nick Chubb, so he was a value buy. But 2020 has seemingly shown folks the two can work in harmony and succeed.

However, what 2020 showed me is just how damn good Nick Chubb is. Even with a four game absence he is still sitting at RB12,12 fantasy points behind Kareem Hunt who was gifted sole ownership of those four games, yet wasn’t able to truly capitalize. Despite all that, Kareem Hunt has the name value and seasonal standing to garner a sizable return upon sale. At 25 years old he has passed a major age apex and will be saddled with the 1B role through 2021 so sell high now before people truly realize this is Nick Chubb’s world and Kareem’s just living in it.

  • James Kreiss (@FF_Chef) – RB | Myles Gaskin (MIA)

Rule of thumb in Dynasty Football; draft running backs and trade for wide receivers. This is a recipe for success especially if you draft low stock, late round fliers at running back. When these late round running backs hit you’ve turned a penny stock dart throw into a bar of gold.

For those Dynasty managers who acquired Myles Gaskin in the past two seasons it’s time to hit the sell button and open your 2021 market on the right foot. In games Gaskin had a 20+ touch game, he averaged as the RB13 with his ability to be a dual threat running between the tackles and in the passing game. The value will take a hit if the Miami Dolphins draft a running back in the 2021 draft. There’s no denying the Dolphins are in a rebuild situation. We saw them secure one of the top quarterbacks in the 2020 draft.

What they didn’t do was spend their picks on a running back. Instead they grabbed older, throw away running backs with Matt Breida and Jordan Howard. With them having already released Howard and Breida on a one year 3.2 million dollar deal set to expire in 2021 there is a good chance they add depth at the position in the Spring. The Dolphins have two first round picks and two second round picks in 2021. Two of those picks are most likely a top 12 in each round courtesy of the Houston Texans with the 2019 Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills trade. With the Dolphins having a strong draft capital, I would not be surprised to see them cash in on a top running back in 2021. This will severely drop the value of Gaskin in a New York minute.

We all saw what happened to Devin Singletary’s value in 2020 when the Buffalo Bills added Zack Moss in the 3rd round. There was an immediate shift in value because everyone was speculating on the young back and how he could fit into the Bills system. This threw the market into an equal balance on Singletary ultimately lowering his value.  

Don’t let the 2021 draft creep up on Gaskin’s value. Sell him while he’s still a low-end RB1 immediately when the 2021 market opens. 

  • Taylor (@_TaylorCornell) – RB | Derrick Henry (TEN)

I get it, people have been saying to sell Derrick Henry shares for two offseasons now. Meanwhile  Henry rewarded fantasy owners with over 1500 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in 2019 en route to a top-5 finish among running backs. Even more impressive was his ability to do so in points per reception (PPR) leagues while only reeling in 18 catches. Those who sold last offseason may be kicking themselves after seeing Henry rumble for more rushing yards and touchdowns in 2020.

However, I would be actively trying to move any Derrick Henry shares before the 2021 season commences. Running backs that do not catch many passes are not usually elite fantasy performers historically. Since 2010, there have been only 17 backs to accumulate even 1,000 yards from scrimmage while catching less than 25 passes. Fifteen of those 17 backs finished as RB2 or RB3’s.  Without offering pass catching upside, relying on Henry to continue to be elite solely on the ground is risky.

Even without considering his lack of receptions, Derrick Henry has another piece of historical data that is not on his side. From 2010 – 2019, 63 different running backs finished as RB1’s. Only 17, or 27%, notched three or more RB1 finishes during that span and only 13% have four or more top-12 seasons. Coming off back to back RB1 seasons, the odds are that Henry may have one more RB1 season remaining before things begin to really slow down. Take into account his age entering next season (27), and there are plenty of other backs I would rather roster.

Use this offseason to float Derrick Henry out in trade talks and see which owners value him as a top dynasty running back and are willing to pay accordingly. If you can secure a younger productive back AND another piece or two in a deal, I would take the package in a heartbeat. Unless you are a strong favorite for a championship in 2021 with Henry, he is not a player you want to be holding much longer.

  • Corey Spala (@cdotFF) – TE | Mark Andrews (BAL)

Mark Andrews is the current TE3 in Dynasty according to Fantasy Pros. This tells me that Mark Andrews is at his highest value. In Lamar Jackson’s ceiling season, Andrews received 98 targets. In Lamar Jackson’s floor season, Andrews received 88 targets. The touchdowns will keep him viable but I want to profit off Andrews.

In the nine games Andrews did not score a touchdown during the 2020 season, he averaged 7.64 PPG (1/2 PPR, TEP). In the seven games he did not score a touchdown during the 2019 season, he averaged 6.54 PPG — 16/29 games you are expecting a mediocre game.

If someone is high on Andrews it would behoove you to sell like I did:

It should be noted that the above trade was easy for me to complete as I have Travis Kelce on my roster. If you do not have a viable backup, I would only sell Andrews if you can get a tight end like: Noah Fant or Dallas Goedert and a 2021 second round pick or Irv Smith Jr. and a 2021 first round pick. Here are notable tight ends I mentioned to buy in September 2020.

The trade market is yours if you have the luxury of another top tight end.

Market Buys

  • Mike (@DaddysHomeFF) – WR | D.J. Chark (JAX)

    Jacksonville Jaguars: The next step for DJ Chark in the NFL

I guess I am a Jags fan at this point, but there is no player screaming buy more than Chark.  This is an athletic freak who has already proven to be productive as a WR1.

This year, he has been on and off the field with injury and had a carousel of mediocre QBs. But this is a 24 year old WR who will be tied to Lawrence or Fields for years to come. Find a frustrated owner and take advantage of rookie fever. 

Make no doubt about it, Chark would be a top pick in rookie drafts if he was coming out this year. 

  • TripleDFFP (@TrippleDFFP) – WR | Mecole Hardman (KC)

KC Chiefs: Realistic expectations for Mecole Hardman in 2020

Nothing shouts from the rooftops “Buy you moron!” more than a WR tied to Patrick Mahomes yet most still aren’t getting the hint with Mecole Hardman. The kid is hyper efficient, a hard worker and tied to the most explosive team in the league. It’s true he hasn’t had the on field success of other young WRs drafted around him but ask yourself, when did we start discrediting the concept of a year 3 breakout at WR? Not every player is going to be a Justin Jefferson. Some just take time and Mecole is the epitome. He played QB in high school, Safety his first year at Georgia and only totaled 60 receptions his entire time with the Bulldogs. He was bound to be raw coming into the league, but under the tutelage of Andy Reid and with a mentor like Tyreek Hill the sky’s the limit for this 22 year old speedster. Add in the fact his primary competition for targets in Sammy Watkins will be gone in 2021? That’s a buy all day.

  • James Kreiss (@FF_Chef) – WR | Gabriel Davis (BUF)

Bills WR Gabriel Davis excited to play against his childhood idol, Larry Fitzgerald | WJET/WFXP/YourErie.com

Just like I said earlier, buy wide receivers. One of the receivers I am targeting in 2021 is Gabriel Davis. The way receivers become more valuable is just like every other position  “opportunity”. 

The 2020 season brought Davis just enough of an opportunity to put him on my radar for 2021. In the first 12 games played in 2020 Davis was used in place of often injured veteran John Brown. During this stint Davis boasted a 64.1% catch rate on 39 targets for 422 yards and five touchdowns good enough to put him at a WR5 during the time span. Wide Receiver (Fives) are easily obtainable more so than your marquee wide receivers who have already sky rocketed through the market. 

What most fantasy managers won’t do is look at the weeks where Davis truly shined on the field. In weeks (9),(12), and (13) Davis was a low-end WR2 with his highest target share in those games only being five. With John Brown only being a 1.6 million dollar dead cap hit in 2021 for the Bills they could decide to get rid of him early due to his age (30 years old) and the list of 13 injuries he has sustained in his six years in the league.

There’s no denying Stefon Diggs is the number one receiver in Buffalo. But, like we saw in Minnesota with Adam Thielen playing opposite of Diggs, both receivers flourished in the offense. With the entire AFC Conference playing copycat to Kansas City to win games, look for the Bills to continue to follow suit and have Josh Allen throw the ball more. Leading to more targets and opportunity for Davis in 2021. 

Obtain Davis as a main target or as a complimentary piece to a bigger trade to bolster your 2021 roster with young breakout studs.

  • Corey Spala (@cdotFF) – TE | Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)

Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. ready for big jump in Year 2

I always make it a priority to solidify my tight end roster spot and ensure I have a foundation and a building block. The foundation can be Travis Kelce or Darren Waller while the building block can be a guy like Irv Smith who has the potential to blossom into the foundation.

Currently in his second season, Irv Smith is still only 22 years old and is ranked as the TE14 (FantasyPros). Smith has not been “breaking out” but has flashed his potential the last two years with the Minnesota Vikings.

Kyle Rudolph had only one game over five receptions in the 2020 season. In the four games Kyle Rudolph was out (W14-17), Smith had: 20 targets, 15 receptions, 183 yards, and three touchdowns.

Not mind blowing production, but eyebrow raising production. The last four games were a glimpse of what Irv Smith can bring to the Vikings. Come 2021, I am optimistic that Irv Smith takes over as the main tight end in the Viking offense — Smith will pair with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook as cornerstones of the Viking offense for years to come.

This is a perfect time to buy low on Irv Smith and position your Dynasty team for future success. 

Discussion

The aforementioned players are “stocks” to be bought or sold following the conclusion of the 2020 NFL Season. It should be noted the stocks are subject to change as free agency approaches and concludes in addition to the 2021 Rookie draft —two variables that can bring substantial change to players’ situations. Be ahead on your league-mates, and start trading as soon as you can while values can be at their all-time high, or potentially at their lowest.

A reminder, this is the first edition of the Dynasty Market series. The Dynasty Market will change day-to-day. As the offseason progresses, I will round up the troops to bring updated Market buys and sell.

Thank you for reading the collaborative article from only part of the Fantasy Intervention team! Stay tuned for continuous Dynasty content to help you plan for the 2021 season.

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